Darwin Núñez is keeping pace with both Kevin De Bruyne and Luis Díaz in a potentially promising area. But Liverpool may need to get him to switch things up.
In the grand scheme of things, Liverpool’s form hasn’t been too bad lately. Their recent four-game winning streak in the Premier League (which was bisected by the World Cup) is a longer run of victories than Manchester City have mustered this season. Indeed, only Newcastle (six) and Arsenal (five) have had longer spells of successive wins in 2022/23.
But when the campaign has been so erratic overall, any setback feels enormous. The positive feeling the Reds had recently accumulated was largely wiped away (at least among their supporters) by the poor showing they offered in their 3-1 loss at Brentford. Add in the news regarding Virgil van Dijk’s injury and the outlook grows bleaker still.
It has left Liverpool fans clutching at any straws which suggest things might turn for the better. The most obvious example relates to Darwin Núñez’s form in front of goal. Having missed all nine clear-cut chances he has had since the World Cup, the Uruguayan’s luck has to turn for the better soon, right?
We can but hope. It is undoubtedly good that the 23-year-old is finding himself in these positions on a regular basis. Luis Suárez had a similar record with big chances in 2011/12 then hit at least 30 goals in each of the next two seasons. There are no guarantees, of course, but it’s not unreasonable to think Núñez might follow the path blazed by his international teammate in the years ahead.
Data analysis of football was far more primitive 11 years ago. We can now access metrics which amateur analysts could have only dreamed of back when Suárez was tearing up the Premier League. Shots, goals and misses inevitably draw the most interest but they are not the only areas in which Núñez is among the top players in England. Perhaps far less obvious is that he is only one behind Kevin De Bruyne at the head of the chance-creating carries chart.
Carries are defined by Opta as a “player moving the ball five metres or more,” and they then look at how many are followed by a shot or a key pass. On a pro-rata basis, Núñez would be top of the pile, ahead of De Bruyne, as he is the only player in the Premier League with fewer than 900 minutes played who is in double figures so far this term.
It’s a broadly similar output that Luis Díaz managed for the Reds last season, as the former Porto man recorded 26 chance-creating carries in 960 minutes. They have a near-identical breakdown for shots and key passes too.
Yet the Colombian is far more renowned for this type of contribution; he topped the Primeira Liga for this metric last season. After the 13th league game this season (a 2-1 win at Tottenham), Núñez had only recorded 12 productive carries, yet he has more than doubled his total in the last four games. Is it a coincidence that (since his brace against Southampton, in match 14) he has been on a goal-scoring drought when taking far more shots following a carry?
Correlation is not causation, as any statto will tell you. But it’s hard not to wonder about the link, particularly as Demarai Gray is the only other player with at least 20 chance-creating carries that has yet to register a goal or assist from them (and he plays for Everton, for pity’s sake, Darwin).
Perhaps there’s a better way to approach the question. You can sort the table on the Analyst website by average carry distance, and only six players have larger figures than Núñez. De Bruyne is not among them, none of them have made more than one goal contribution from these dribbles so far, and Gray is in that group too.
Coincidentally, only a sextet of men averaged longer carries last season too, with Allan Saint-Maximin the most productive of them with two goals and two assists. Even that’s not much output for the 68 chance-creating carries he mustered.
In the pantheon of Liverpool’s current problems, Núñez not making more of his lengthy dribbles with the ball is a long way down the list. But it is one where it feels like a minor tweak (plus the addition of another pacey forward in the shape of Cody Gakpo) might help. If he can receive the ball closer to goal and not have to do all the running himself, Núñez might be of clearer mind when the time comes to pull the trigger. Sliding down the chance-creating carries list might actually be of benefit to the former Benfica forward.
SOURCE: liverpool.com
